Iceland Volcano: Steady Magma Recharge To Svartsengi Reservoir -- Iceland Met Office

A picture taken June 22 into the one crater that remained active until the end of the eruption that began on May 29. (Photo: Civil Defense)

Another diking event and/or eruption is likely to occur in the coming three to four weeks

Iceland Met Office

Updated 16 July at 15:25

• As of today, the estimated magma recharge to the Svartsengi reservoir has reached the lower limit of what was lost during the 29 May diking event and first week of the eruption
• The lower limit is around 13 million cubic meters and the upper limit 19 million cubic meters of magma.
• Assuming a similar volume of magma needs to be recharged to build up enough pressure in the system to trigger the next event (dike and/or eruption), geodetic modeling indicates that there is a very high probability that this will occur within the next three weeks

The hazard map has been updated and is valid until 26 July

As of today, the estimated magma recharge to the Svartsengi reservoir has reached the lower limit of what was lost during the 29 May diking event and first week of the eruption. The lower limit is around 13 million cubic meters and the upper limit 19 million cubic meters of magma.

Assuming a similar volume of magma needs to be recharged to build up enough pressure in the system to trigger the next event (dike and/or eruption), geodetic modelling indicates that there is a very high probability that this will occur within the next three weeks.

If, however, a higher volume change is required (similar to that reached prior to the 29 May event, ~ 20 million m³) then this will be achieved within the next three to four weeks. This is based on the assumption that the inflow rate of magma from depth remains constant as of today.

Updated hazard map

Recent data analysis of the temporal evolution of fissure openings for previous Sundhnúks eruptions indicates a systematic southwest migration. Considering this data and the considerable amount of fault movement within Grindavík since November 2023, the likelihood of lava extrusion in Zone 4 is now considered higher for future eruptions.

Therefore, the likelihood of occurrence for fissure openings, lava flows and gas pollution has been raised to medium in Zone 4, in line with the assessment of these hazards in Zone 3.

This change does not currently affect the overall hazard level in Zone 4, which remains considerable (orange).

The hazard map is valid until 23 July (unless there is a change in activity)

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